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Puerto Rico's International Travel Update for Fall 2024

Friday, September 06, 2024 Research

As we approach the peak of the Tropical Atlantic Storm season in September, a recent study of American travelers completed by Longwoods International and Miles Partnership confirms that 40% of travelers have had their travel plans impacted by weather events in the last twelve months. While only 8% of those surveyed canceled their plans fully, most modified their travel plans, including postponing a trip (17%), altering their itinerary (13%), shortened stays (11%), or changing the destination altogether (11%).

According to the Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) managed by N.O.A.A. “for someone visiting the tropics from June through November, the chance of experiencing (or even being threatened by) a hurricane is very small”. Regarding Puerto Rico weather in September specifically, the AOML explains that “the chance is 8% of experiencing a hurricane if you are there for the WHOLE month. If you are there for, say, only a week, then the chance would be one-fourth of that – or only about a 2% chance.

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Travel for the next 90 days (September to October) typically sees a mix of business and leisure travel. As summer ends and the school year begins, leisure travel decreases while business travel increases. In looking at the U.S. hotel demand weekly pace, overall, hotel demand is generally below last year’s levels, with upticks for the week of September 22nd and the weeks of October 12th and 20th. Notably, November hotel demand shows sharp year-over-year changes as the Thanksgiving holiday is pushed back a week later this year to November 28.

Despite the consumer travel sentiment index remaining high at 91%, 57% of American travelers surveyed report that inflation is still impacting their decision to travel in the next six months. This index reflects how consumers feel about traveling in the near future considering factors such as economic conditions, personal finances, and overall confidence in travel safety and convenience.

Although the rate of inflation in the U.S. has significantly decreased over the past couple of years, the proportion of travelers who say inflation will greatly impact their travel decisions in the next six months rose from 24% in July to 30% in August—the highest level in 2024.

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International visitation can significantly bolster U.S. hotel demand during a recession by providing a diversified revenue stream that helps offset declines in domestic travel. According to the U.S. Travel Association Recovery Tracker through July 2024, Puerto Rico has achieved one of the highest recoveries to pre-pandemic levels among U.S. states, with a 51% increase in overseas arrivals compared to 2019. However, overall U.S. visitor arrivals from overseas are at 86% of the 2019 levels, partly due to reduced demand from Asia and long Visa processing wait times.

On a global scale, the average wait time for a visa interview is 271 days. However, for key inbound markets to Puerto Rico, such as Mexico and Colombia, the average wait times are significantly longer, at 435 days and 710 days, respectively. Although Puerto Rico visitation is approximately 90% based out of the U.S. domestically, there are efforts to expand access from international destinations.

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From September through the end of the year, Puerto Rico boasts International nonstop air service from 19 cities, including new service from Barbados and Trinidad & Tobago. Overall seat capacity has increased 24% compared to the same time last year, with 350,000 seats currently available. Around 42% of the total seat capacity is from the Dominican Republic, followed by Colombia (15%), Panama (11%), the British Virgin Islands (9%), and Madrid, Spain (9%).

The markets experiencing the most significant year-over-year expansion include Cancún (Mexico), Medellín (Colombia), Santiago (Dominican Republic), St. Maarten, and Madrid (Spain, with over 58,000 additional seats combined since last year). Conversely, routes that have been discontinued since last year include Puerto Plata, DR, La Romana, DR, and Antigua.

Regional airline Skyhigh Dominicana recently announced non-stop service from Santo Domingo into Aguadilla and San Juan starting in October.

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